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Recent Press  Colorado Leads on Clean Energy By Julia Haggerty Ph.D. "While Colorado has not been immune to the global recession, a recent study finds that the state's green economy has been a bright spot of economic dynamism during challenging times and that the growth of Colorado's clean energy sector has outpaced that of all other Rocky Mountain States. That did not happen by accident. Colorado's strategy of targeted public policy and strong support for business has made it a competitive center of clean tech innovation that leads the region in almost every indicator, including capturing the most clean energy-related jobs, venture capital, and public funding...." Link to Article Link to Study New Mexico Ahead in the Green Game By Julia Haggerty Ph.D. "New Mexico's combined strategy of targeted public policy, strong leadership, and support for business has made it a regional and national clean energy leader, increasing its green jobs faster than other Rocky Mountain States. ...The states with the best early results and strongest competitive position are those able to capture new energy opportunities--not only power generation facilities and manufacturing jobs, but investment and employment in the myriad technologies, products and services related to a growing worldwide demand for clean energy, conservation and energy efficiency. New Mexico's success shows the importance of both policy and political guidance at all levels of government, from county commissioner to U.S. senator. The state's aggressive outreach program, backed by strong incentives--including property tax breaks, bonding, and worker training--has attracted new jobs and investment to the state...." Link to Article Link to Study Montana Missing Clean Energy Opportunities By Julia Haggerty Ph.D. "During the recent economic downturn, Montana’s wind industry has been a welcome bright spot, creating jobs, revenues for landowners and supporting county and state treasuries. One important question now facing Montanans is how the state can leverage its renewable resources to cultivate a broader green economy that generates jobs, taxes and investments. Headwaters Economics recently completed a report--Clean Energy Leadership in the Rockies: Competitive Positioning in the Emerging Green Economy--that compares how Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming are taking advantage of clean energy opportunities...." Note: This essay also circulated in the Billings Gazette, Bozeman Chronicle, Great Falls Tribune, Helena Independent-Republic, and Missoulian. Link to Article Link to Study Colorado Harvests a Green Economy By Mark Jaffe "Colorado's green economy has been boosted by more than $796 million in venture-capital investment and $300 million in federal stimulus funds in the past decade, according to a study on green-job growth in the West. Between 1995 and 2007, environment-related and renewable-energy-related jobs in Colorado grew by 30 percent to 17,008, the study by Headwater Economics, a nonprofit research group in Bozeman, Mont., showed. 'The numbers are still small, but this has been a growing area, and Colorado has attracted venture capital, even during the recession,' said Chris Mehl, Headwaters policy director. The green economy's venture-capital investments were made in the state between 1999 and 2008, the fifth highest among states, according to the study...." Link to Article Link to Study Why Did Deschutes Fall so Hard? By David Holley "A Montana-based nonprofit is studying why Deschutes County has struggled more during this recession than other similarly populated areas that, like Deschutes, saw strong growth before the economic downturn. Headwaters Economics’ study aims to provide an analysis about how the county can better diversify its economy, how it has done so in the past and how it can become more resilient to recessions. The information gathered by Bozeman-based Headwaters will be used to learn why businesses come to Deschutes County, what keeps them here and the pros and cons of operating a business in the area. Headwaters is interviewing people from a county in Idaho and another in Utah, which had pre-recession growth rates and economic environments similar to Deschutes County, to try to determine why those two counties have suffered less than Deschutes during the recession. Link to Article Link to Study Wildfire Costs Rising By Ed Quillen "...Why the big cost increase? The Headwaters Economics report cites three factors: wood, weather, and WUI -- the Wildland-Urban Interface. Wood is a result of forest management practices that allow fuel to accumulate. Weather is a hotter, drier climate. And the WUI zone is an increasingly attractive place to build homes, which means there's more property to be protected from wildfires. Such developments benefit from 'perverse incentives' and a lack of accountability: 'People who develop in forested areas, and local governments that allow such new subdivisions, do not pay their share of fire fighting costs. The majority of firefighting expenses instead are paid by the Forest Service, BLM, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.' ...If you live where wildfires are a possibility, it might be a good idea to make sure your county commissioners get a copy of this report -- deterring development in the WUI is one way to save tax money." Link to Article Link to Study To Protect and Serve: Could More Wilderness be the Answer for Struggling Rural Economies? By Eric Flowers "...In a study that ONDA commissioned to examine the potential economic benefits of designating the Badlands area outside of Bend as a federal wilderness area, the Montana-based non-profit research firm Headwaters Economics found that counties with protected federal lands, including wilderness, outperformed their counterparts in a number of key economic indicators, including per capita income, job and population growth. 'There is a lot of complaining about public lands, but from an economics perspective having public lands is a good thing and demonstrably so,' said Ben Alexander who helped write the Badlands report for ONDA. It's a phenomenon that has played out not just across the Western United States, but also around the world where entrepreneurs and educated members of the workforce are seeking out so-called quality of life destinations, identifying the places they want to live and locating there. Wilderness and other protected areas like national parks, it turns out, factor significantly into those decisions. In some cases, the transplants bring their businesses or their jobs with them, in other cases the jobs are following the skilled workforce, explained Alexander...." Link to Article Link to Study Curbing Wildfires's Cost By Ray Rasker, Executive Director, Headwaters Economics "Fighting wildfires costs U.S. taxpayers $3 billion annually, more than twice what it cost a decade ago. Unfortunately, this expense is almost certain to continue to grow, and—unless action is taken—firefighting costs could at least double again in the next 15 years because of expanding residential development on fire-prone lands and increased temperatures associated with climate change.... ....In an effort to curb the rising expense of fighting forest fires, Headwaters Economics has developed a report that outlines ten possible solutions, ranging from increased education to changes in insurance or mortgage laws. The research white paper shows that we have the knowledge and solutions needed to address this problem, and the report, Solutions to the Rising Costs of Fighting Fires in the Wildland-Urban Interface, enjoys the support of former Director Kennedy and Dale Bosworth, former Chief of the Forest Service...." Link to Article Link to Study Wildfire Costs Won't Change Without New Incentives By Brodie Farquhar "Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research firm in Bozeman, Mont., has outlined 10 proposals to help curb the risingg expense of fighting forest fires--which already costs taxpayers $3 billion annually or roughly half the Forest Service’s budget. To prevent firefighting costs from at least doubling in the next decade or two, the report recommends some dramatic changes in incentives, pushing costs onto wildland interface property owners and the county commissioners who authorize residential development on fire-prone lands. 'The current policy of looking the other way while more and more homes are built on dangerous, fire-prone lands is not sustainable,' said Ray Rasker, the report’s author. 'This report shows that we have the knowledge and solutions needed to address this problem. Now is the time to implement responsible, accountable steps that can help hold the line on future fire costs.'..." Link to Article Link to Study A Hidden Gem in the Organs By Gabriel Vasquez "Land and resource management goes hand in hand with economic development, according to a group of panelists who visited from across the West to speak at the “Wilderness Economics” forum Saturday, Dec. 5, at the New Mexico Farm & Ranch Heritage Museum.... ....Ben Alexander, associate director of the Headwaters Economic Institute, a nonprofit research group based in Bozeman, Mont., said historically public lands have been tied to economy prosperity. 'When we think about the economic history of public lands we think of food, shelter, forage and clothing for our pioneers and settlers,' he said. 'And subsequently, those lands have generated a tremendous amount of wealth for our communities today.' He said commodity-based uses directly tied to public lands have been diminishing in importance for years, and dramatically so in the last several decades, accounting for less than 10 percent of total personal income in the rural West. One of the best ways to make the lands profitable, he said, is to protect them so that they can provide the scenery, weather, amenities and recreation to make Las Cruces an 'attractive' place to do business...." Link to Article Link to Study What Will Climate Change Cost Montanans? By Ray Rasker, Executive Director, Headwaters Economics "Climate change is here. It’s already influencing economic decisions and conditions across the world. Yet most of the analysis on the impacts of climate change has been so large or abstract—the global impacts of weather patterns or rising sea levels—that the results often hold little value for an average family or small business. Locally, there has been little research on the direct impacts that climate change will have on Montana communities. Fortunately, more analysis is starting to take place at the state and local level...." Note: This essay also circulated on NewWest.net. Link to Article Link to Study Best of Both Worlds - Retiring Boomers Likely to Migrate to Small Cities with Natural Amenities, Hospitals By Michael Jamison "America's baby boom is set to become the elderly explosion, particularly in Montana's rural and scenic small towns, as an increasing number of people teeter on the edge of retirement. In their golden years, the baby boomers are looking for mountains and beaches and lakeshores and, according to a new U.S. Department of Agriculture report, their migration to small towns "will affect rural economies and rural development policy efforts for years to come."... ...Their work supports 20 years of research by Ray Rasker, executive director at Bozeman-based Headwaters Economics. 'The retirees are going to go to the places with the highest amenities,' Rasker said, meaning rural towns with trails and views and wide open spaces...." Link to Article Link to Study Cost to protect homes from wildfires may jump, study says By Allison Maier "The cost of protecting homes from wildfires could more than double in the next 15 years due to a combination of continued housing development and increasing temperatures, according to a study by Headwaters Economics. Higher average temperatures would cause longer, more intense fire seasons. That, paired with an increase in the number of houses near forestland, would mean more homes would be susceptible to fires, the group said. The safety of residents and firefighters would be the main concern in that situation, but there are also significant economic costs that come along with it, said Headwaters policy director Chris Mehl...." Link to Article Link to Study Wyoming airports struggle during recession By Brodie Farquhar "Nationally, states are seeing fewer airline seats offered for sale in August, as of mid-July in the Official Airline Guide. The information guide states that Wyoming will have 10.5 percent fewer seats available in August, compared to a year ago.... ....'Airports do make a difference in economic development,' said Ray Rasker, citing Headwaters Economics' 'Three Wests' study, which examined how the presence of airports contributes greatly to economic diversity and development. 'Airports provide access to markets,' he said. 'It is always important to people doing business to see each other face-to-face.' That's why Gallatin County, Mont., is investing in an airport expansion and improvement project for the Bozeman area -- in the middle of a severe recession. 'They understand it is a good investment for the decades to come,' Rasker said...." Link to Article Link to Study States consider gas and oil levies By Ben Casselman "Cash-strapped states are considering raising taxes on oil production to plug yawning budget gaps, but they face strong resistance from oil companies, which warn the moves could lead to lost jobs and higher energy prices.... ....A study released last fall by Headwaters Economics, a Montana-based nonprofit, found that Montana and Wyoming, despite widely differing effective tax rates, haven't seen much difference in drilling activity. 'It doesn't seem to be affecting where companies drill,' said Mark Haggerty, one of the study's authors. Mr. Haggerty said that if states want to encourage drilling and maximize revenue, they should have relatively high severance taxes but encourage companies to look for new oil fields. That is the approach taken by Alaska, which has the country's highest severance tax rate, at 25% of net income per well, but also offers subsidies for companies to invest in the state...." Link to Article Link to Study Funds to fight fires going up in smoke By Ray Rasker, Executive Director, Headwaters Economics "This year's forest fire season has arrived across the West, bringing with it the disturbing trends of ever larger fire suppression costs mostly paid for by the national taxpayer, and often to protect second homes that are only seasonally occupied. The price of fighting forest fires has increased substantially, now accounting for half of the Forest Service's budget and costing taxpayers billions. Just last month, the U.S. House of Representatives unveiled its war-related supplemental spending bill that also includes $250 million for fighting wildfires this summer — funding that is in addition to the $1.1 billion already appropriated for federal firefighting this year. Yet we have failed to address one reason why forest fires have become so expensive: the increasing number of private homes, many of them second residences, near forested public lands...." Link to Article Link to Study What Wyoming can do to avoid more busts By Chris Mehl, Policy Director, Headwaters Economics "No other state in the Intermountain West is as reliant as Wyoming on energy industries to sustain its economy and tax base, and Wyoming's economy is the most specialized in the nation. In recent years this has provided a number of benefits to the state. Wyoming has more than $3.6 billion in its mineral trust fund; Wyomingites have a low tax burden; and the unemployment rate has remained among the lowest in the country when rates in neighboring states have doubled. At the same time, Wyoming's economic specialization also means it has the greatest exposure of any state to the volatility of fossil fuel industries. While visiting Wyoming earlier this month, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig warned the state is 'mineral driven' and should diversify its economic base...." Link to Article Link to Study State revenues never caught up with Sweetwater boom By Brodie Farquhar "What happens when an economy is focused on energy extraction? That's the question asked by Headwaters Economics in an 18-month research effort that focused on Rock Springs and Sweetwater County in southwestern Wyoming. Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group based in Bozeman, Mont., found that while Wyoming's energy boom of this decade dramatically increased state revenues and employment, the long-term effects of the boom are more uncertain, especially on local governments. Researchers noted that between 2000 and 2006, the production value of oil and gas in Wyoming skyrocketed from $7.3 billion to $17.6 billion. However, real earnings per job in 2006 were about $2,000 less than what they were in 1979, during the prior boom era...." Link to Article Link to Study Group: Utah national parks a big benefit to local economies By Mike Stark "Visitors to national parks such as Arches and Canyonlands pump millions of dollars into local economies and provide a steadying influence in tumultuous times, according to a new analysis released Wednesday.... Ray Rasker, an economist with Bozeman, Mont.-based Headwaters Economics, said the effect of national parks on local economies varies from place to place, but there's a larger theme that emerges. 'West-wide, places that have protected landscapes like national parks tend to be doing better economically in a variety of different ways,' he said. He's been tracking communities in the West where economies based on extraction industries and agricultural operations have given way to tourism. That tourism often leads to infrastructure improvements, including upgraded airports, which in turn lead to more people moving to the area and bringing their businesses with them, Rasker said. 'It's not just quality of life,' he said. 'It's a magical combination of a national park with some sort of transportation infrastructure.'..." Link to Article Link to Study Is Sweetwater County Getting Shafted? Report Urges Wyoming Tax Reforms By Sam Western "An extensive report by Headwaters Economics, an independent regional research organization, recommends that Wyoming follow Alaska’s example to revamp its severance tax formula and direct additional tax revenue to the counties and communities where most mineral extraction takes place. 'Some have argued persuasively that Wyoming ought to compare its tax structure not to its peers in the Intermountain West, but to Alaska, the only other state in the U.S. that relies as heavily as Wyoming on revenue from the oil and natural gas industry,' the report notes. In the 62-page report, Impacts of Energy Development in Wyoming with a Case Study of Sweetwater County (pdf), authors Julia Haggerty and Mark Haggerty argue Wyoming’s current formula distributes only a small percentage of the severance tax it receives to the local governments where the energy impact is greatest...." Link to Article Link to Study Now's the Time to Tackle Forest Fire Fighting Costs By Ray Rasker, Executive Director, Headwaters Economics "As spring arrives, this year's forest fire season will be upon us soon. The price of fighting forest fires has been increasing substantially, now accounting for close to half of the Forest Service's budget and costing the taxpayer billions. Yet we have failed to address the root causes of these escalating expenses. The Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management often have to pay for fire fighting by raiding other programs. Congress has started to address this issue, and the House of Representatives recently passed the FLAME Act, which will create a separate account to fund fighting the most expensive wildland fires. If this passes the Senate and becomes law, biologists and recreation managers no longer may have to fear for their budgets when large fires break out. Unfortunately, the FLAME Act by itself will do nothing to address a key reason of why forest fires have become so expensive - the increasing number of homes on private land near forested public lands...." Note: This essay also circulated in numerous papers across the West as part of Writers on the Range. Link to Article Link to Study Report: NM Now #1 in Oil and Gas, But Challenges Persist By Erik Mack "New Mexico is number one in the Intermountain West when it comes to oil and gas production, according to a new report, and being on top comes with certain challenges. Report author Ben Alexander from Headwaters Economics says the state has surpassed Wyoming in production, and is doing a pretty good job of capturing that energy revenue. However, he says, Santa Fe seems to be relying too much on those oil and gas dollars, contributing to the state's current big budget deficit...." Link to Article Link to Study Report: Wyoming Not Capitalizing on Energy Resources By Bob Moen "The recent energy boom has enriched the state in many ways, yet Wyoming has not fully capitalized on it, a new report concludes. The state should be able to extract more tax money from industry without hurting energy development and spend more money to lessen the impact of development and attract other types of industries that are more economically stable, the report produced by Headwaters Economics said. 'There's room to fine tune the revenue stream and to ... maximize even more revenue from existing production, and there's no signs that that's going to deter energy companies,' said Julia Haggerty, lead author of the report, which looked specifically at how the boom has affected Sweetwater County...." Link to Article Link to Study West's (Other) Cities Lead the Boom By David Frey "The West may be best known for its wide-open spaces, but increasingly it's becoming an urban landscape. Many of the nation's fastest-growing cities were in the West last year -- and they're not the places you'd think... 'What they all have is some combination of attractive qualities and practicality that work for people,' says Ben Alexander, associate director of Headwaters Economics, a Bozeman, Mont.-based nonprofit research group. 'These midsized communities are usually more affordable than big cities but less isolated than small towns. They have more natural amenities than urban areas but more cultural amenities than rural ones.' His organization divides the region into the 'three Wests.' One is urban. One is remote. A third is rural, but connected to the world by handy airport access and other amenities. That West has been seeing much of the growth, Alexander says...." Link to Article Link to Study Why Montana's Energy Tax Policy Must Change By Mark Haggerty, Policy Analyst, Headwaters Economics "Baseball managers today use statistics such as a player's batting average or a pitcher's success against left handed hitters to find better players and win more games. The introduction of statistics often went against the intuition of scouts and managers honed over decades. Statistics can help Montana make better policy decisions too. Take the example of recent efforts in Helena to raise oil and natural gas taxes. A key question is whether higher taxes mean less business for Montana. Intuition tells us that a lower tax rate should result in more wells and jobs (a higher 'economic batting average'). Headwaters Economics studied the oil and natural gas tax policies of Montana, Wyoming, and three other western states to test this wisdom...." Note: This essay appeared in the Bozeman Daily Chronicle on March 7, 2009, the Butte Standard on March 11, 2009, and the Great Falls Tribune on March 12, 2009. Link to Article Link to Study Airports Key to Rural Economic Development By Brodie Farquhar "Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group based in Bozeman, Mont., has developed a new way to look at the West, generating research that shows that there are three distinctly different types of counties in the West, defined by their access to major markets and population centers. A map generated by the group shows a tri-colored West: blue for metro areas, grey for rural counties and yellow for counties that are neither metro nor rural, but represent an in-between continuum, with airport access a critical factor. Of all the states on the map, Wyoming has the largest number of 'connected' counties -- counties in a rural setting, but connected to the rest of the world via airports with daily commercial service...." Link to Article Link to Study Energy-Producing Counties in the West Fall Behind By Bill Bishop "There was a bumper sticker popular in the West Texas oilfields in the late 1980s that said, 'PLEASE GOD, Just Give Me One More Oil Boom. I Promise Not to Blow It Next Time.' There was another boom when oil peaked last year and now that oil prices are dropping again, another bust. Did they blow it? Who can tell? The question rural counties need to be asking is whether a local economy built on mining, pumping and drilling for energy is better than the alternatives? Researchers at Headwaters Economics in Bozeman, Montana, say no. Counties that have a large percentage of workers mining coal or drilling for oil and gas have weaker economies than counties without natural resources, according to a recent Headwater study. Energy-intensive counties have slower growth. They are losing people to migration. They have lower rates of growth in household income...." Link to Article Link to Study Guest Editorial: New Mexico Needs a Less Volatile Energy Policy By Ben Alexander, Associate Director, Headwaters Economics "As New Mexico debates regulations and revenue related to the oil and natural gas industry, conflicting assertions have resulted in a confusing jumble of claims and counter-claims. But by examining the broader context of fossil fuel energy development in the state, policy options that meet important goals for New Mexico become clear. Regulations and tax policy should at a minimum have three goals: protect the health and safety of citizens and the environment; sustain the oil and natural gas industry as a productive part of New Mexico's economy; and provide revenue to help the state to pay for essential services...." Link to Article Link to Study Guest Editorial: Fossil Fuel Focus Fails as Economic Development Strategy By Ben Alexander, Associate Director, Headwaters Economics "As economic and budget challenges continue to mount in states across the West, some legislators are calling for greatly intensifying energy drilling and mining as a means to return to the days of past prosperity. Energy work can bring good jobs and other benefits to communities, and recent research shows that relying on fossil fuel extraction may not be an effective economic development strategy for counties competing in today's growing and more diverse Western economy. A study completed late last year by Headwaters Economics looked at the consequences for Western counties that have focused on energy production with a relatively high proportion of total jobs (7 percent or more) involved in the extraction of oil, natural gas or coal. Our analysis found that 26 of 414 Western counties, or 6 percent, are focused on fossil fuel production and that these counties are underperforming economically compared to peer counties with little or no energy extraction...." Link to Article Link to Study My view: Oil-and-gas regs bring long-term economic gain By Kim Sorvig "America's New Year's resolutions clearly include responsible energy production, and years of anti-competitive federal subsidies and exemptions for fossil-fuel industries are likely to be reversed in 2009.... Petroleum production taxes and royalties generate 15 percent to 20 percent of state revenues, but four times as much (about $11 billion) still goes to private and out-of-state pockets. Despite industry claims, oil and gas provides less than 3 percent of New Mexico's jobs and income. Headwaters Economics, in a comprehensive and unbiased study, calls New Mexico's royalties and severance tax reasonable, unlike typical federal giveaways...." Link to Article Link to Study Is oil and gas overrated? Environmental concessions to energy sector don't have a big payoff, study says By David O. Williams "Colorado's recent energy boom has impacted the environment without having economic benefits as great as those generated by other industries, according to a new study. The report produced by the nonprofit research group Headwaters Economics, concludes that Colorado needs to lobby the federal government harder in order to control the pace of energy development on public lands, use state authority to protect the landscape of impacted communities and change the mineral tax structure to capture more value. The group, based in Bozeman, Montana, is funded by economic analysis contracts with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service. It also contracts with towns, state agencies and other nonprofits, and derives some of its funding from foundations and grants...." Link to Article Link to Study Boom makes it harder for businesses to thrive By Phillip Yates "A new study indicates that the natural gas boom on the Western Slope has made it harder for other sectors of the regional economy to thrive. Those business segments--such as the service, professional, construction and tourism--helped the local economy recover from the oil shale bust of the early 1980s and currently sustain most households on the Western Slope, according a report from Headwaters Economics, a Bozeman-Mont. nonprofit research group. 'If you can maintain those sectors through the energy surge, through the boom period, you are going to be better off coming out at the other side,' said Mark Haggerty, one of the authors of the report. After the region's oil shale bust of the 1980s and the local economic hardship that followed, the two counties' economies 'de-coupled' from the energy industry, the study says. From 1987 to 2000, the services and professional sectors added more than 29,000 jobs, or about two-thirds of total new jobs. Non-labor sources such as retirement benefits and investments resulted in more than 31 percent of all new income, and construction added almost 8,000 new jobs...." Link to Article Link to Study Power struggle in western Colorado Energy industry, second-home industry in conflict By Scott Condon "The slump in Aspen's home-building economy is magnifying the influence of the oil and gas industry on the West Slope--bringing both blessings and curses.... The growth of the energy industry in Garfield County has been explosive. In 2001, only 384 people were employed in the 'mining' sector of the economy, which includes the oil and gas industry, according to statistics collected by the state government and compiled in an economic profile by an independent, Montana-based, nonprofit research group called Headwaters Economics. By 2006, however, 1,909 new jobs had been created in the energy industry, swelling the total number of workers in the sector to 2,293. They accounted for 6 percent of Garfield County's total work force in 2006, the latest year that statistics are available. Garfield County's construction industry also is heavily dependent on oil and gas production. Firms are hired to clear roads and scrape pads for drilling rigs. Workers in the home building trade, who once possibly made the commute to Aspen, are staying closer to home, lured by high-paying jobs in the gas patches, said Ben Alexander, associate director of Headwaters Economics...." Link to Article Link to Study Study says oil, gas amendment won't hurt state's economy By Gargi Chakrabarty "Tax hikes on the oil and gas industry don't drive away investment or stunt the creation of jobs, according to a study released Wednesday by a nonprofit consulting firm. The study by Bozeman, Mont.-based Headwaters Economics bolsters Gov. Bill Ritter's support for Amendment 58 and rebuts threats by Colorado's oil and gas industry, which opposes the ballot measure. Amendment 58 seeks to raise an additional $320 million each year in severance tax revenues from the state's booming oil and gas industry by eliminating an existing ad valorem tax credit. The bulk of the money would fund college scholarships, with smaller portions going to renewable energy, environment and conservation. 'We haven't taken a position on Amendment 58, but our study shows no evidence that taxes scare away industry,' said Mark Haggerty who authored the study...." Link to Article Link to Study Drilling not the solution By Brodie Farquhar "Headwaters Economics, a Montana-based, independent think tank, is casting doubt on the conventional wisdom that more drilling will result in lower prices at the gas pump for consumers. The non-profit research group kicked off Energy and the West in late August - an ambitious, nine-part series of economic analysis and case studies that consider the impact of energy development on states, counties, and communities, from the perspectives of economic performance and fiscal health...." Link to Article West Slope struggling with 'clash of economies' By Scott Condon "At a time when many parts of the country are struggling with soaring unemployment, plummeting real estate values and an onslaught of property foreclosures, western Colorado's economy sticks out as an oddball.... 'Call it a 'clash of economies,' said Ben Alexander, associate director of Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group that strives to improve community development and land management decisions in the West. It's not just the energy economy battling the resort economy, he said. High-paying jobs in the gas patch not only make it tough for employers in Aspen to find enough workers, it also makes it tough to find everything from carpenters to retail clerks in towns like Rifle...." Link to Article Great Falls Tribune (August 21, 2008) Study: Protecting homes drives up wildfire costs By Karl Puckett "Protecting houses from forest fires in Montana is costing the state millions extra, and it's only going to get more expensive as more residents settle on large rural lots, a new study says. 'We're very confident our data supports (that) homes do, indeed, contribute to fire suppression costs,' Patty Gude of Headwaters Economics told members of the Legislature's Fire Suppression Interim Committee, which met here Wednesday. Bozeman-based Headwaters, a not-for-profit research group that studies land-use issues, completed the study for the committee...." Link to Article Denver Post (July 22, 2008) Guest Editorial: How to Develop Energy Locally By Ben Alexander, Associate Director, Headwaters Economics Colorado's oil and natural gas industry has been claiming in print and radio advertisements that new rules proposed by the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission would slow down energy development and leave energy company workers without jobs and communities suffering. But it's just not true that slowing energy development will devastate Colorado's economy or communities. In fact, the opposite appears to be the case. Analysis by Headwaters Economics shows how to do energy development right in Colorado:
The bottom line is this: It's vital that frenzied energy development in Colorado slow down so local governments and economies can reap the long-term benefits of oil and natural gas development. Link to Article Quality Drives Montana's Economic Success By Ray Rasker Election season is upon us and it's time once again for politicians to talk about the economy. This time, let's do it with some facts in hand. The common lament, faithfully repeated by newspapers and politicians across the state, is that we rank towards the bottom, if not dead last, in many key economic indicators, like per capita income. After reading these accounts, one can't help but feel depressed and want to blame someone. But let's be fair. Montana is for the most part a rural state. Our biggest county, Yellowstone County (Billings) has a population of less than 140,000. Yet every time we hear a lament abut how poorly we're doing, we rank ourselves with the rest of the country. It means we're stacking our rural numbers up against states like Colorado with Denver, Arizona with Phoenix and Tucson, and Utah with Salt Lake City. It's okay, or even a good thing, that Montana does not have a Salt Lake City or Denver. When we look at Montana's economy, we should compare ourselves to like-sized places in the West. Let's see how we stack up. Let's compare ourselves to the rest of the West with places with population centers of 140,000 or less. From 1990 to 2005, our rate of job growth was the same as the rest of the (small-sized) West (2.3% per year). The same is true for the rate of growth in real personal income (5% per year). Where we really excelled was in per capita income growth. While in the rest of the rural West, per capita income grew by 1.3% per year from 1990 to 2005, in Montana ours grew by 5.7% per year. Why is that? A big part of the reason is Montana's ability to attract investment and retirement income, which today represents over one third of all personal income in the state. To put this into perspective, age-related income (retirement, disability, and Medicare payments) in Montana is now twice the personal income from people employed in farming, ranching, mining, oil and gas development and the wood products industry – combined. While this doesn't mean that we've become a retirement destination, it does beg the question: why Montana? What are we doing to attract so much retirement and investment income? Another important fact for Montana is our growth in wages. From 1990 to 2005, the average annual wage in Montana grew by 3.4% per year. In our similarly sized peers in the West, the average annual growth was only 0.4% per year. Again, why Montana? What are we doing right? Our high growth in knowledge-based industries has a lot to do with this. Today there are 4.5 times more people employed in service industries than in the goods producing industries, and fortunately, service industries today no longer means only low-wage tourism jobs. Places like Bozeman, Missoula, Kalispell, Helena, Butte, and Billings excel in their ability to attract high-wage service workers in finance, medicine, technology, and information, with wages at least $10,000 per year above the state average. With our high quality of life and pristine environment, our universities and regional airports, we excel in our ability to attract and retain people who want to live and do business in Montana. Our quality attracts those who came here to retire. It also keeps long-time residents from leaving. It attracts investment income, and entrepreneurs who create well-paying jobs. This fall, as we head for the polls, lets keep these facts in mind. Montana as a whole is doing quite well and the reason is no fluke. Our free-flowing rivers, national parks and wilderness areas, our wide-open ranchlands and friendly communities – these are the qualities that are rapidly disappearing throughout the West. Montana is doing well because we've worked hard to protect them. This essay appeared in the Bozeman Daily Chronicle (MT) on July 19, 2008 and in the Butte Standard (MT) on July 20, 2008. Washington Post (July 5, 2008) Closed-Door Deal Could Open Land in Montana By Karl Vick "The Bush administration is preparing to ease the way for the nation's largest private landowner to convert hundreds of thousands of acres of mountain forestland to residential subdivisions. The deal was struck behind closed doors between Mark E. Rey, the former timber lobbyist who oversees the U.S. Forest Service, and Plum Creek Timber Co., a former logging company turned real estate investment trust that is building homes. Plum Creek owns more than 8 million acres nationwide, including 1.2 million acres in the mountains of western Montana, where local officials were stunned and outraged at the deal." ....'Now that Plum Creek is getting out of the timber business, we're kind of missing the loggers,' said Ray Rasker, executive director of Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit that studies land management in the West. 'A clear-cut will grow back, but a subdivision of trophy homes, that's going to be that way forever. It's kind of the ugly face of the new economy....'" Link to Article New York Times Magazine (May 18, 2008) Drilling for Defeat? By David Sirota ..."According to Headwaters Economics, a Montana-based research group, the energy sector currently employs only 1.3 percent of the region's work force. And mining generated just 2.9 percent of all personal income in the five natural-gas-producing Western states in 2006. By contrast, retirement benefits, service jobs and professional industries generated about 55 percent of the region's income. Many of these sectors have an interest in reducing energy development. After all, retirees, professionals and tourism businesses often come to the region for the open spaces." 'Lots of drilling is great for the industry,' said Headwaters Economics' associate director, Ben Alexander. 'But is it good for the region as a whole?' The political battle for the West will be won by whichever party offers the most convincing answer...." Link to Article High Country News (May 12, 2008) Boom! Boom! By Francisco Thorp "In western Colorado, an energy boom of unprecedented proportions has been layered on top of a thriving amenity economy. Which will come out on top?" ...'This economic diversity is key to long-term growth,' says Ben Alexander of Headwaters Economics, an independent nonprofit research group. 'People are earning real money in this job market, and that's a great thing.But, he warns, regions with economies that are overly dependent on energy development - places like Gillette and Rock Springs, Wyo., southeast New Mexico, and Big Horn, Mont. - are 'less resilient, more volatile, and over the long run, they can grow more slowly....'" Link to Article New York Times (Feb. 24, 2008) Once Immune, Utah is Feeling Economic Dip By Kirk Johnson "In the economic boom that thundered through Utah over the last few years, many people saw a kind of perfect chemistry at work." What demographers call Utah's special story -- its population is the youngest in the nation by far and one of the fastest growing, mainly from large Mormon families -- was paying off, melding with a surging engine of growth in Utah's backyard and throughout the world. ...And the wave of affluent retirees, except for Utah's southwest corner in St. George, has mostly gone elsewhere, remaking towns like Grand Junction, Colo., and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. In the five states that are Utah's immediate neighbors -- Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado and Arizona -- Utah's economy is least dependent on -- or in a downturn, least helped by -- the 'nonwage' income that retirees have to spend from annuities and investments, according to Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research group in Bozeman, Mont...." Link to Article Missoulian (December 30, 2007) Plum Creek subdivisions could strain fire budget By Michael Jamison "...State and county leaders discussed budgets strained by infrastructure needs in neighborhoods that not so long ago were working woods. Now, those far-flung homeowners want roads and snowplows and police and bus routes to schools, but property tax revenues from the new subdivisions don’t begin to cover the costs. As far as those worries are concerned, not much has changed here at the end of 2007, except perhaps that more people than ever are watching and wondering. The singular exception is with regard to fire, where two things happened this year to ratchet up the discussion about Plum Creek’s land management. First, a red-hot wildfire season sent state firefighting costs soaring into the tens of millions of dollars, forcing lawmakers to redirect money that was to be spent elsewhere. Second, Bozeman-based Headwaters Economics completed a long-term analysis of expected future firefighting costs if more of the land is developed...." Link to Article Denver Post (November 29, 2007) State economy finds strength in diversity By Aldo Svaldi "Diversification and growth in the Colorado economy will keep the current energy boom from driving up wages and hiring as much as it did during the 1970s. But in some counties, energy-industry development could displace non-energy jobs and sources of income, leaving those economies more vulnerable in the long run. 'Energy is important but less important than it used to be in the past. Diversity leads to stronger long-term growth over time,' said Ben Alexander, associate director at Headwaters Economics, an independent, nonprofit research group based in Bozeman, Mont...." Link to Article Billings Gazette (September 19, 2007) Fire costs to grow, group says By Mike Stark "Fighting fires in forested areas where more people are building homes will only get more expensive and dangerous in Montana and across the West, according to a report from a group of economists released Tuesday. Headwaters Economics of Bozeman examined private land in the "wildland urban interface" - areas that abut fire-prone forests - in 11 Western states and found that 14 percent of it has been developed. What worries Ray Rasker, the group's director and lead economist, is what might happen if some, or all, of that remaining 86 percent is built up, especially given the increased costs of fighting wildfires in recent years...." Link to Article Link to San Francisco Chronicle Editorial Link to Wall St. Journal Editorial (preview only) Link to Our Study — West-wide Wildland Urban Interface Analysis Seattle Post-Intelligencer (July 26, 2007) Corner of State Sets Pace to Save Forests By Joel Connelly P-I Columnist "An increase in value-added manufacturing has kept people at work in the mills. The economy diversified with service-related industries. Retirees discovered that this is an affordable corner of the state. God's unspoiled out-of-doors was an economic asset. Still, 'responsible management areas' will make a difference. 'Assuming standard multipliers, it is reasonable to assume timber-related employment could increase on the order of 220 to 440 jobs,' said an economic assessment prepared by Montana-based Headwaters Economics...." Link to Article Link to Our Study — Timber, Restoration Forestry and Wilderness in Northeast Washington Bozeman Daily Chronicle (Dec. 12, 2006) Growing Trend: Development Tally Shows Past 5 Years Have Altered Valley By Walt Williams "[Ben] Alexander said one troubling trend about the figures compiled by his organization was that the growth in the number of acres used for new homes has increased faster than the growth in population." Link to Article Maps to accompany the article and additional information. Washington Post (Dec. 2, 2006) In West, Conservatives Emphasize the 'Conserve' By Blaine Harden "'The New West is best understood as islands of urban economics in a rural setting,' said Ray Rasker, executive director of Headwaters Economics, a think tank in Bozeman, Mont. 'They are made possible by a combination of environmental amenities combined with the presence of transportation, especially good airports....'" Link to Article Reprinted in The Seattle Times (Dec. 15, 2006) Westerners Are Coming Back to Conservation Link to Article. LA Times (Nov. 26, 2006) Circling the Welcome Wagons Equity-rich boomers who yearn for wide-open spaces are heading for the Rocky Mountain West—Montana in particular—where the locals are waiting. With pitchforks. By Jim Robbins "And a Third Coast. In the Rocky Mountain West, nearly 'all net new jobs are in service—engineers, architects, maid, waiters,' says Ray Rasker, executive director of Headwaters Economics, a nonprofit research firm in Bozeman, the seat of Gallatin County (the population of which, by the way, has shot up 55% in 15 years)...." Link to Article
Headwaters Economics Banner photo has been generously provided by Alex Diekmann. |